The misinformation and disambiguation out there today is now running at fever pitch. Sure there are traps out there, but I actually feel this is my advantage over the claptrap that passes for institutional research. I have done this kind of lone wolf tracking of conditions for a long time, and feel my instincts are very good. I really didn’t see this story being reported anywhere. Here is what the Philly Fed survey says about future inflation expectations now. In the same post I pointed out how rapidly rising prices paid are outrunning prices received that are being reported in the manufacturing surveys could only mean one thing: profit margin squeeze. Yesterday I reported on the nao combinam” (does not fit) aspects of Chinese exports from Asia. Does this lower gasoline consumption suggest fewer shopping trips? Not too much of a stretch to connect the dots on that one. But if you follow the mainstream media line, shelling out more for fuel is not going to be an issue for consumers. Mastercard Spend Pulse reports gasoline demand fell 2.7% in the same week, as consumers respond to higher gas prices, which are up 19 cents since Nov. 10, fell 0.4 percent compared with last year. In another example I only found one obscure story about ShopperTrak which reported that retail sales for the week ending Saturday, Dec. Even odder is that this is explained away not as generalized retail weakness, but as “somebody else” picking up the biz. When a major retailer such as Best Buy reports disappointing prospects it is dismissed as an outlier. The actual data seems buried in more obscure back page stories if at all. It means “what pops up”, or what is in the forefront.įor example I have been looking for recent retail sales trends, but mostly what pops up are conventional wisdom bromides such as “exceeding last year” or “relatively strong”. I use that term loosely to describe what can be gleaned from, for example, a simple Google search. As I go about the process almost single handedly of trying to ascertain what is really going on, I am faced with signs of disambiguation and lots of it.
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